Problem 1: How dengue control can affect Zika related mortality and morbidity
Researcher coordinators
Researcher collaborators
Fabio Chalub, M Céu Soares
Summary
Zika virus is transmitted through the bite of an infected mosquito, it was first identified in Uganda, in 1947. Nowadays, there are outbreaks by Zika virus in America, Africa, Asia and in the Pacific.
Zika virus is transmitted by Aedes species mosquito (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) that are also responsible for dengue transmission.
Recently, an outbreak in Brazil was associated with an unexpected increase of microcephaly in newborns. In fact, a pregnant woman can pass Zika virus to her fetus during pregnancy, causing microcephaly and other severe fetal brain defects. Dengue is an endemic disease in Brazil, where the mosquito population has been controlled as a public health measure.
Mosquito control impairs both diseases transmission and is expected an increase in the average age of infection in the human population, that can be pernicious, since it may increase the incidence of Zika in fertile and pregnant women, thus leading to more cases of fetal malformations.
In this project, we will model the dynamics of Zika disease and analyze the effects of vector control on the average age of infection. Furthermore, we will use that model to explore how the introduction of other control measures affects the transmission dynamics of Zika disease.
Mathematical background
Ordinary differential equations
Stability analysis
References
On Zika outbreaks in the Americas
On Increased age at infection (rubella in Greece)
On Dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens - historical overview